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Prediction for CME (2014-06-12T22:12:00-CME-001)CME Observed Time: 2014-06-12T22:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/5767/-1 CME Shock Arrival Time: 2014-06-17T05:40Z Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME: Max Kp: 3.0 Predicted Arrival Time: 2014-06-15T06:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h) Prediction Method: Other (SIDC) Prediction Method Note: :Issued: 2014 Jun 13 1300 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# The complex and long duration M3.1 flare (peaking at 22:16 UT) on June 12 was associated with an EIT wave, type II radio burst (estimated shock wave speed is about 1700 km/s) and a partial halo CME. The CME was first seen in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 22:12 UT, had the angular width of 200 degrees and the projected plane of the sky speed of 600 km/s (as reported by the CACTUS software). The bulk of the CME mass was ejected south-west from the Sun-Earth line. The arrival of the glancing blow from the CME-driven shock wave is possible but not very probable in the evening of June 15. #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply # # directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to # # 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use # # 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#Lead Time: 88.67 hour(s) Difference: 47.67 hour(s) Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2014-06-13T13:00Z |
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